Simon Harris should seize the day and call an early election

As summer ends, so too soon will the 33rd Dail. The one question dominating the environs of Leinster House now is: when? The stakes couldn’t be higher, yet whispers of a November vote being “premature” are gaining traction in some circles. Let’s be clear, this argument is, at best, flimsy.
Political momentum, as we’ve seen from America, is a force that can surge or slip in an instant. Right now, the government has it. The opposition, once formidable, is stumbling. How much would the Democratic Party give to be able to set an election date sooner, given their present momentum? And yet, here in Ireland, that’s exactly the power that the government has in its gift. They can set the time. Why not embrace that?
Even if the Dail were concluded on Thursday October 24, say, with a view to an election in mid-November, it would have run to 94 per cent of its possible existence: essentially a full term. At that stage the government will have set out the budget for next year. It will have voted on the measures arising. Accordingly, there is a straightforward logic that flows from that, whereby it is the best time to seek a mandate to continue to govern.
If Simon Harris walked into the Dail in October and said he was off to the Aras, the idle debate about whether an early election is wise or not would be instantly squashed. It’s an objective fact that 94 per is an essentially complete Dail term and in the history of the state, only six terms have lasted longer. It is, therefore, difficult to credibly make the argument that holding an election in November would be somehow “premature”.
Some will decry that such thinking is politically opportunistic but what’s wrong with a government using a mechanism at its disposal, a majority with which they can set the timing of the election, to bring about the best possible chance of gaining a second mandate and continuing to govern? After all, what is wrong with asking for the electorate’s permission to continue doing a job that, presumably, the government believes it is good at? That’s democracy.
Equally, it is difficult to deny that the government is on a good run. Both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael had objectively good local elections, while the Greens held up in their core urban areas. The government parties ultimately received 48 per cent of the votes and, crucially, 52 per cent of the seats. Transfers are flowing between the government parties.
What must also be given consideration, on the other side of the ledger, is that Sinn Fein, which once proclaimed its ambition to be “the most effective opposition in the history of the state”, looks like anything but. The sudden about-turn in the party’s fortunes has been so startling as to warrant more analysis.
In a remarkable run, Sinn Fein led every single poll from July 2021 right up until June’s local elections— an unbroken streak across 94 consecutive polls, with the party maintaining an average lead of 11 per cent over its next closest rival. For more than two years, from 2021 to 2023, Sinn Fein seemed like it would be the largest party come the general election, but everything began to shift from November 2023.
Sinn Fein’s collapse with the electorate came much like Hemingway’s famous line about bankruptcy: “Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” Following November 2023, the month which saw the abhorrent riots take place on the streets of Dublin, Sinn Fein’s poll percentage numbers began to slip, moving from the 30s into the 20s. By the local elections, Sinn Fein registered just 11.9 per cent, a far cry from its previously dominant position, as if 2020 had never happened.
Were the polls wrong? In hindsight, no. The data clearly indicates that a shift began about this time. The circumstances, backdrop and sentiment of the electorate changed, rather than the polling being incorrect. The reaction to the polling then precipitated a further stumble: one unforced error forcing another.
It is evident to any observer of constituencies that there is a strong correlation between areas where anti-immigration factions are at their strongest, and where Sinn Fein’s vote was previously at its strongest.
Sinn Fein has, in turn, changed its course and moved its position and, in doing so, isolated a different cohort of voters: specifically, many of the more liberal pro-migration voters who had turned toward it in recent years. Voters of the centre-left. And this isolation is the key part: immigration isn’t the sole issue that has led to the evaporation of the Sinn Fein vote but, rather, the idea that the party’s rhetoric and policy can mutate so quickly has led people rightly to ask themselves: if they can change so swiftly on this issue, what else can they change their minds on?
Hildegarde Naughton’s coining of a Sinn Fein U-turn being a “Mary Lou Turn” is looking increasingly apt: their ratings performed a U-turn, and their policies have followed.
Their political machine itself also seems to be rusty. Polling by Kevin Cunningham of Ireland Thinks highlights how only 18 per cent of respondents met a Sinn Fein canvasser, compared with 34 per cent meeting a Fine Gael canvasser and 35 per cent meeting a Fianna Fail one.
It’s unclear where Sinn Fein goes from here, though two things are definite. First, they have left the door very much open for the coalition, or a flavour of it, being returned. Second, they have to be seen to want an election, despite their obvious difficulties.
As such, if you are a government which is seeking a new mandate: why take the chance to wait and see if, or when, the opposition might find its feet again?
There will always be work to do in government: passing the budget, implementing it, ensuring measures which are implemented in January are felt by the electorate; these will all be offered as reasons to avoid having an election. But, eventually, you do reach the end of the term, and the question from this juncture becomes: should government go for it at a time of their choosing, or should they allow circumstance to decide their fate?
Ultimately, there is little merit in waiting until March. The opposition, despite Sinn Fein’s waning fortunes, either wants an election or have to at least be seen to want one. Government backbenchers clearly want to avoid the January blues being the backdrop of a fourth consecutive general election. It’s time to seize the initiative.
Politics, as we have seen all too clearly in America more than anywhere else in recent weeks, is very much about momentum. Elections are about momentum. In politics, it’s elusive. But when you have it, it’s magic.
The government presently has that all too precious political commodity. It may well end up kicking itself if it does not use it at the right time.
Brenda Power is away