Arsenal cannot afford to lose at Spurs – Pep Guardiola is unbeatable once he is out in front

City manager’s astonishing record when leading a title race suggests Mikel Arteta is already facing a critical week in his side’s season

So here is a scenario. Manchester City beat Brentford at home on Saturday – not an unreasonable assumption, as the bookmakers’ odds will reflect, despite Thomas Frank’s losing only 1-0 at the Etihad Stadium last season and winning there 2-1 in the previous campaign.
Then, the following day, Arsenal battle to a draw away to Tottenham Hotspur in the north London derby. Without the suspended Declan Rice and the (probably) injured Martin Odegaard, it is a good result.
On Thursday, they face a tricky Champions League tie against Europa League winners Atalanta in Bergamo. City have an even more challenging game against AC Milan, but they are at home 24 hours earlier.
Then on Sunday, having played three home games since the international break compared to Arsenal’s three away, an Erling Haaland-inspired City run out narrow winners over Mikel Arteta’s side at the Etihad.
None of that is improbable and it does not point to Arsenal blowing up but, suddenly, and after just five Premier League games, they would be seven points (and potentially eight if they lose to Tottenham) behind the champions. Mind the gap? It might already be too much!
After all, when was the last time a Pep Guardiola side surrendered a seven-point advantage at any stage in a season? He has claimed 12 league titles in the past 15 campaigns at Barcelona, Bayern Munich and City. In two of the other three seasons he was always way off the pace with City, finishing third in his first season, 2016-17, 15 points behind champions Chelsea, and 18 points in arrears when Liverpool won in 2019-20.
Once, with Barcelona in 2011-12, he lost out to Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid, who finished with a record 100 points (Barca achieved 91) and it felt the race was over in February. But never has Guardiola been caught as the front-runner. 
This is not to dismiss the challenge of Liverpool, level on points with City and yet to concede a goal, but rather to lay out the challenge Arsenal face in the coming week to stay in the title race.
Even as early as mid-September they are effectively facing must-win and must-not-lose games. And this with Arsenal having already won away to a Champions League team, Aston Villa, with a mature performance, having lost there last season. Plus Arsenal drew at home to a rampant Brighton & Hove Albion with 10 men after Rice was sent off. It is hardly a crisis.
But there is so little room for error. It was Mourinho, when he arrived at Chelsea in 2004, who smashed the concept – established by Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United – that title winners could play themselves into a season, almost like running on the shoulder of a pace-setter in a middle-distance race before hitting the front.
Mourinho’s Chelsea hit the ground running and did not stop. Two Premier League titles later and the opposition were still catching their breath. It was to Ferguson’s credit that he regrouped, reorganised and changed his approach.
Since then being a front-runner has almost been an advantage. Especially for a coach such as Guardiola, who rather than buckle under pressure, absorbs it and, as his record shows, posts astonishing numbers.
In four of Guardiola’s six Premier League title-winning seasons, City have achieved at least 90 points. Before he arrived in England, the 90-point mark had only ever been reached on five occasions, once in a 42-game campaign.
Under Guardiola, City have sometimes started slowly. In 2022-23 they drew two of their opening six games and won the league. The previous season they lost one and drew two of their first seven fixtures and still won the league. But no one took advantage.
Scarily, they have again hit the front early this season – along with Liverpool – even though arguably City’s most influential player, Rodri, is yet to play a minute (likewise the now-injured Nathan Ake) and with player of the year Phil Foden, John Stones and Kyle Walker only making only one substitute appearance each, as they are also eased back after the European Championship.
The relentless pressure City exert is such that, when Mikel Arteta was asked in pre-season what was needed to finish ahead of them, he said: “One hundred and 14 points! If we do that, we win the league for sure.” That means winning all 38 league games.
Arsenal have given us a title race in the past two seasons when, such was City’s dominance, it might otherwise have been a procession. In fact it appears, at times, that City have not just beaten the opposition but broken them. Returning to the analogy, it has been like runners stepping off the track in the face of an unbeatable opponent.
Arsenal have benefitted from a near-perfect injury record up until now, which means Arteta, fresh from signing a deserved three-year contract, has not been forced to test the strength of his squad. Now, with new signings Mikel Merino and Riccardo Calafiori also out, they are stretched.
For Arsenal, the danger this season is potentially how quickly City can establish a daunting advantage. It may even feel that the fixture list has conspired against Arteta’s side. Their next league games are at home against Leicester City and Southampton, two promoted teams. They will fully expect to win both but by then, as ridiculous as it sounds, the damage might already have been done.